Economic losses due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Ethiopian cattle

Ethiopia’s cattle population is among the largest in Africa and is burdened by frequent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks each year. FMD is caused by several distinct and highly contagious viral strains that can result in acute disease in cattle, causing losses in productivity and impeding international trade. This economic simulation study considered four main sources of losses due to FMD in cattle: reduced milk yield, draft power yield, fertility, and increased mortality. Economic losses were estimated per case across age-sex strata in 89 Ethiopian administrative zones for the years 2010 to 2021 using a wide range of data to estimate distributions for 30 input variables in a series of Monte Carlo simulations. It was estimated that an average case of FMD in Ethiopian cattle results in losses (mean values reported followed 95% confidence intervals in brackets) of US dollars (USD) 11 (USD 7 – USD 16) per case. Losses resulting from an average outbreak were estimated to be USD 2,300 (USD 1,400 – USD 3,300), while national annual losses were estimated to be USD 0.9 Mil. (USD 0.2 Mil. – USD 2.3 Mil.). Per cow-year, based on a national cow population of approximately 39 Mil. head, these estimated annual losses are equivalent to losses of only USD 0.02 (USD 0.01 – USD 0.06). Nationally, these losses were significantly less than previously estimated in the literature. Sensitivity analyses suggested losses would be far greater in intensive systems and that certainty surrounding incidence rates is paramount to the formulation of economically sound animal health policy in regions with endemic FMD.