Climate sensitive diseases in the Mekong Region: Can we predict pests by climate factors?

A warmer, wetter world is likely to be sicker. TheMekong is a hotspot for human, animal
and plant diseases, and some of themost important are highly sensitive to climate
and climate changes. These diseases can impose enormous burdens on human health
and the agricultural sector and hinder broader development. Better response to climate
sensitive disease requires better information and tools. The objective of the project we
are presenting here is to develop tools to forecast climate-sensitive animal and plant
diseases in Vietnam and Laos. Key work packages will include (among others) developing
and disseminating maps of hotspots for selected climate-sensitive animal and
zoonotic diseases, piloting a real-time prediction system, and exploring the potential
for weather-based forecasting for aflatoxin mitigation (only Vietnam). As climaticsensitive
animal diseases and zoonoses leptospirosis and Japanese encephalitis have
been identified in stakeholder consultations for Vietnam. Leptospirosis is caused by
bacteria hosted by mammals, although the rodent-borne serovars are most often associated
with serious human diseases which get infected through contact with contaminated
water. Japanese encephalitis is a vector-borne viral disease transmitted by
culicine mosquitoes from the amplifying hosts (e.g. pigs) to humans, where disease
can be fatal. Aflatoxins, produced by Aspergillus spp in cereals, can cause acute or
chronic aflatoxicosis in humans. The association of these diseases and meteorological
conditions is evaluated and models will be built to predict future occurrence. If the
models are successful in predicting disease, the aim is to provide policymakers and
stakeholders with tools to aid in mitigating future disease and to make susceptible
societies more resilient to future climate change. The ultimate outcome targets farming
communities that are able to take practical action to reduce disease risk and/or
benefit from risk-mitigating action provided by health providers. A framework which
will guide through the various work packages will be presented and discussed. The
project is funded by the CGIAR programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS).