Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5°C target by 2030 but not 2050
Abstract
Agricultural methane emissions must be decreased by 11 to 30% of the 2010 level by 2030 and by 24 to 47% by 2050 to meet the 1.5 °C target. We identified three strategies to decrease product-based methane emissions while increasing animal productivity and five strategies to decrease absolute methane emissions without reducing animal productivity. Globally, 100% adoption of the most effective product-based and absolute methane emission mitigation strategy can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in methane. On a regional level, Europe but not Africa may be able to meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target, highlighting the different challenges faced by high- and middle- and low-income countries.
Citation
Arndt, C., Hristov, A.N., Price, W.J., McClelland, S.C., Pelaez, A.M., Cueva, S.F., Oh, J., Dijkstra, J., Bannink, A., Bayat, A.R., Crompton, L.A., Eugène, M.A., Enahoro, D., Kebreab, E., Kreuzer, M., McGee, M., Martin, C., Newbold, C.J., Reynolds, C.K., Schwarm, A., Shingfield, K.J., Veneman, J.B., Yáñez-Ruiz, D.R. and Zhongtang Yu. 2022. Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5°C target by 2030 but not 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 119 (20) e2111294119.
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