Overcoming the threats to agriculture and food security in a changing climate requires a strong scientific evidence base to both help smallholder farmers choose resilient strategies and to guide development policy and investments.

Building on a Bioversity and CCAFS systematic review of the role of diversification in agricultural systems, the Platform for Agrobiodiversity Research is now hosting the ReFARM (the Resilience Framework for Agriculture and Risk Management) Database, to feature hundreds of reviewed case studies on these issues.

Case studies can be quickly screened according to a range of categories including region, scale, climate risks, diversification type and other management categories, along with other features of agricultural systems. Practitioners who would like to contribute their own work are invited to submit a case directly through the site.

So far the database has 37 case studies on diversification and livestock …

Follow the link to the web site ReFARM

Filed under: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Crop-Livestock, CRP7, Launch Tagged: Bioversity, ReFARM

Former US Vice President Al Gore speaking at the Hunger, Nutrition, Climate Justice Conference in Dublin, 16 Apr 2013. CGIAR CEO Frank Rijsberman (second from left) looks on. Read more about this event. Photo credit: Vanessa Meadu/CCAFS.

‘What happens when some of the world’s thought leaders in hunger, nutrition and climate justice meet with innovators working at the frontlines of climate change in developing countries? At the Hunger, Nutrition and Climate Justice conference in Dublin yesterday, these pairings helped bring lofty theories down to earth, infusing discussions on rights, risk, knowledge and empowerment with touching and inspiring examples from around the world.’

Here’s what one participant said about ‘risk’:

‘William Ole Seki Laitayock, a pastoralist from the Ngorongoro area of Tanzania, explained that the Maasai culture, which revolves around cattle, is under threat due to competing commercial interests (mining, agriculture, tourism) that drive them off land or prevent them from moving freely. Climate change only aggravates this.

Laitayock explained that policies and interests that constrain the mobility and movement of pastoralists undermine their main tactic for staying resilient.

Maasai herding his cattle in Tanzania (photo on Flickr by Saadiq Rodgers-King).

‘Many countries are a long way from looking at their economic development strategies through the lens of climate change vulnerability — but this is what is needed. . . .’

Jimmy Smith, director of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, agrees. He attended the Dublin conference and recently presented this overview of the history of our livestock-human relations: Taking the long livestock view, Jan 2013.

See also ILRI’s Shirley Tarawali, director of Institutional Planning and Partnerships, on Options for enhancing resilience in pastoral systems, Feb 2012.

And see ILRI scientist Polly Ericksen on Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity across the global tropics, Mar 2011.

Read the whole article on the CCAFS Blog: Risks, rights, knowledge and empowerment: Connecting the dots, 16 Apr 2013.

Read a previous article about this conference on ILRI’s Clippings Blog: Hunger-nutrition-climate: Can the ‘centre’ hold? Is ‘climate-smart’ agriculture the answer?, 16 Apr 2013.

For more information, go here. Follow the conference on Twitter by searching for #HNCJ.

Watch a short (3.32-minute) animated video from Ireland, a country that should know, on modern links between great hunger and climate change.

Filed under: Climate Change, CRP7, Event, Food security, PA, Pastoralism, Vulnerability Tagged: HNCJ, Ireland, Jimmy Smith, Polly Ericksen, Shirley Tarawali

Rose Mnjemo with soya beans, a maize, soya and cassava farmer from Khulungira Village, in central Malawi (photo credit: ILRI/Stevie Mann).

Agence France Presse reports on a 2012 international study that found that climate change is on track to disrupt lifeline food crops across large swathes of Africa and Asia already mired in chronic poverty.

More than 350 million people face a ‘perfect storm’ of conditions for potential food disaster, warns the report by scientists in the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Temperature increases projected by UN climate scientists could, by 2050, shorten growing seasons below critical thresholds, worsen weather variability, and render many regions dominated by subsistence farming unsuitable for key crops. If these areas have a history of persistent food shortages to begin with, the mix could be lethal.”

Co-author of this report is Philip Thornton, an agricultural systems analyst and climate change specialist at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Thornton also is a theme leader in the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

‘”We are starting to see much more clearly where the effect of climate change on agriculture could intensify hunger and poverty,” said Patti Kristjanson, a scientist at CGIAR’s Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

‘Farmers know from experience how to cope with fickle weather patterns by changing planting schedules and moving livestock.

‘But rapid and major climate shifts may force them to use “entirely new crops or new farming systems,” and many may not be able to adapt, Kristjanson said.

‘The 100-page study identifies potential food crisis “hotspots” by overlaying three kinds of data onto global and regional maps. . . .

When you put these maps together, they reveal places around the world where the arrival of stressful growing conditions could be especially disastrous,” said Polly Ericksen, a scientist at CGIAR’s International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi. . . . [I]n much of Africa and Asia, where farmers are already struggling to meet basic needs, survival is strongly linked to the fate of regional crop and livestock yields,’ Ericksen said. . . .”

‘”The window of opportunity to develop innovative solutions that can effectively overcome these challenges is limited,” said Philip Thornton, a scientist at CCAFS and co-author of the study.

‘”Major adaptation efforts are needed now if we are to avoid serious food security and livelihood problems later.”‘

Read the whole article at Agence France Presse: Tropical ‘hotspots’ may get too warm to farm, 3 June 2011.

Read other news articles reporting on the same study in Time Magazine, and BBC and the Guardian.

 

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Food security, ILRI, PA, PLE, Report Tagged: Agence France Presse, Patti Kristjanson, Philip Thornton, Polly Ericksen

Girdhai Lal Jat herds his cattle through the village of Nagar, in Tonk District, Rajasthan, India, to water (photo credit: ILRI/Stevie Mann).

‘At the United Nations climate talks in Doha this week, India opposed any move that would require developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

‘With an estimated 485 million cattle, goat, buffalo and sheep, India has the most livestock in the world, and it is the second largest producer of methane in the world after China. Methane, a byproduct of livestock’s digestive process, is the second most abundant greenhouse gas, after carbon dioxide, and it traps 25 times more heat than carbon dioxide does.

‘Agriculture is too important to India to ask farmers to change their practices now, Indian representatives said in Doha.

‘“Agriculture is not only a source of economic growth but also a source of livelihood for millions of people,” R.R. Rashmi, a senior negotiator from India, told delegates. A majority of developing countries agreed that agriculture-related emissions—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide—should not be included in the gases nations are being asked to commit to cut. Instead, they’d like discussions on the topic to focus on how to help poor farmers affected by climate change. . . .

‘Methane emissions from cows can be reduced by altering their diet. Scientists say that livestock fed on grains such as barley, corn and wheat produce less methane than grass-fed cattle. In India, however, most farmers cannot afford to buy fodder, and cows mostly graze.

‘“Our animals are not stall-fed,” Ms. Mehrishi said. “So it’s very difficult for us to control any emissions” from livestock. . . .

‘While developed countries have greater agricultural output, developing countries have more farmers who would be affected by moves to cut carbon-related emissions, some experts say.

‘Ram Kishan, a livelihood analyst with Christian Aid, a British antipoverty organization, said it was still unclear whether developed or developing countries produce more emissions from agriculture. He said the intensive agriculture practiced in developed countries, using mechanized farming equipment and advanced irrigation systems, has the potential to emit more than small-scale agriculture does.

‘Agriculture-related emissions first became part of the climate-change talks in Durban, South Africa, in 2011. Some activists call that a mistake. “Developing countries should have killed the move in Durban,” Mr. Kishan said.’

Read the whole article by Betwa Sharma in The New York Times: India, world’s largest livestock owner, balks at farming gas curbs in Doha, 5 Dec 2012.

Filed under: Climate Change, CRP7, India, PA, South Asia Tagged: Doha, Greenhouse gas emissions, New York Times

The challenge ahead is unequivocal,” says Mario Herrero, senior agro-ecological systems analyst with the International Livestock Research Institute. “We need to feed 9 billion to 10 billion people in the future at a lower economic cost, but also in a socially and economically acceptable way.”

Mario Herrero was speaking in Nairobi, Kenya, at a November ‘livestock live talk’ he gave at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). The subject of his talk was ‘Livestock and global change: Towards a sustainable and equitable livestock sector’.

‘As food systems continually evolve, he points out, the research agenda must also adapt to satisfy societal and economic interests. This requires taking a look at the global picture of livestock production and related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, then identifying potential areas of mitigation. . . .

The developing world has enormous livestock mitigation potential, and this is largely associated with livestock practices,” he states.

‘While improving management strategies for cropland, grazing land and organic soils could reduce carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions, changes to livestock feeding practices and genetic advancements have the potential to be effective strategies in decreasing methane. For example, certain feed additives can reduce methane production during rumination. Herrero also says that if crops yields are improved, livestock production could increase at a faster pace to meet growing demands. . . .

‘Feed and land use, he adds, will be the key drivers for determining the efficiency of the livestock sector.

The better we feed cows, the less methane per kilogram of milk they produce,” he points out. However, this can be counterproductive because as milk production increases, feed intake increases as well, and, thus, methane. Producing more milk with fewer animals is the way to reduce overall emissions. “The key here is less–but better-fed–animals,” according to Herrero.

‘He cites a study that estimated the potential for reducing methane from livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Intensifying the diet for cattle by introducing a stover with higher digestibility could mean significant mitigation–more than a 60 percent reduction in methane produced and number of cattle needed to satisfy the projected demand for 2030. Even if the intensified diet were adopted at a rate of 23 percent, methane would be reduced by 14 percent. Acceptance and adoption of such practices is critical.

‘Another area that could be targeted for GHG mitigation is carbon sequestration, particularly in the vast rangelands of Africa. This could be an important income diversification source for landowners, but the challenges lie in measuring and monitoring stocks and establishing payment schemes.

Though each of these mitigation strategies have the potential to reduce GHGs, Herrero emphasizes that trade-off’s must be considered. “Mitigation in livestock systems requires the fundamental recognition that societal benefits need to be met at the same time as the environmental ones.”’

Read the whole article by Peggy Coffeen at Agri-View, an agricultural newspaper in Wisconsin, USA: Global livestock industry challenged to meet demands, reduce emissions, 6 Dec 2012.

View a related slide presentation given by Mario Herrero on Mitigation potentials of the livestock sector, on 13 Nov 2012. This was the fourth of a series of live-streamed science seminars organized by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.

Filed under: Climate Change, CRP7, ILRI, LivestockFutures, PA, Presentation Tagged: Agri-View, CCAFS, livetalk, Mario Herrero

Globally, the demand for meat products is growing at 1.8% per year due to increasing populations, economic growth and rapid urbanization. Agropastoral and pastoral systems cover 45% of the earth’s usable surface and supply 9% of global meat production, while mixed crop-livestock farming systems produce 54% of the total meat and 90% of the milk consumed in the world.

This demand for livestock products is expected to grow but climate change and competition for land is likely to limit the area available for livestock keeping. What are the options to feed more people, more efficiently from livestock farming?

Join Mario Herrero – a senior systems analyst with the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) on Wednesday,  28 Nov 2012, as he gives a presentation on ‘livestock and global change’, at the ILRI Nairobi campus Info Centre, from 1500-1600 hours.

Herrero leads ILRI’s Sustainable Livestock Futures program (SLF). The program conducts foresight studies on emerging livestock development challenges with uncertain future impacts and signals their importance for other ILRI programs and policymakers.

Mario Herrero, team leader for ILRI’s Sustainable Livestock Futures program (photo credit: ILRI).

He has coordinated several global integrated assessment projects such as the CGIAR global assessment of food production systems, ecosystems services and human well-being. Additionally, he has contributed to numerous international assessments such as the 2010 World Development Report, the 2007/2008 Human Development Report and the 2007 Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. He has participated in international task forces such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Guidelines and has served in several donor and science advisory committees on livestock and the environment.

Herrero has published more than 150 refereed papers, book chapters and reports in his areas of expertise and is currently on the editorial board of Agricultural Systems and is a guest editor for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal (PNAS) in the area of livestock, sustainability science and global change. He has also supervised over 60 academic theses on different aspects of animal production systems.

View Mario Herrero’s publications here: http://mahider.ilri.org/simple-search query=%28%28author%3A%22herrero%2C+M%22%29%29&rpp=10&sort_by=2

The presentation is part of ILRI’s ‘livestock live talks’, a seminar series at ILRI that aims to address livestock-related issues, mobilize external as well as in-house expertise and audiences and engage the livestock community around interdisciplinary conversations that ask hard questions and seek to refine current research concepts and practices.

All ILRI staff, partners and donors, and interested outsiders are invited. Those non-staff who would want to come, please contact Angeline Nekesa at a.nekesa[at]cgiar.org (or via ILRI switchboard 020 422 3000) to let her know. If you would like to give one of these seminars, or have someone you would like to recommend, please contact Silvia Silvestri at s.silvestri[at]cgiar.org (or via ILRI switchboard 020 422 3000).

Filed under: Africa, Agriculture, Asia, Central America, Climate Change, CRP7, Environment, Farming Systems, ILRI, Livestock Systems, LivestockFutures, PLE, Research Tagged: livestock live talk, Mario Herrero, PNAS

Taking a young goat to market at Mieso, in the Mirab Hararghe Zone of the Oromia Region, Ethiopia (photo credit: ILRI/Apollo Habtamu).

Nature News reports on a new CGIAR study that says ’One-third of our greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture’ and advises farmers to abandon vulnerable crops in the face of climate change.

‘The global food system, from fertilizer manufacture to food storage and packaging, is responsible for up to one-third of all human-caused greenhouse-gas emissions, according to the latest figures from the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), a partnership of 15 research centres around the world.

‘In two reports published today, the CGIAR says that reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint is central to limiting climate change. And to help to ensure food security, farmers across the globe will probably have to switch to cultivating more climate-hardy crops and farming practices.

‘“The food-related emissions and the impacts of climate change on agriculture and the food system will profoundly alter the way we grow and produce food,” says Sonja Vermeulen, a plant scientist at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark and a co-author of one of the studies, which estimates the emissions footprint of food.

‘Vermeulen and her colleagues examined for the first time the carbon emissions for all stages of the global food system. Previous work has only looked at the contribution of agricultural production to greenhouse-gas emissions, including the release of nitrous oxide from soils from farming techniques such as tilling.

‘. . . The researchers found that agricultural production provides the lion’s share of greenhouse-gas emissions from the food system . . . . Increasing temperatures and the likelihood of flooding will challenge farmers’ ability to safely store and distribute food, boosting the risk of food-borne illnesses and diarrhoeal diseases, they add.

Food safety will in future be a crucial issue. This is a different take from the usual focus on crop yields and emissions,” says [Bruce] Campbell.

In the second report, Philip Thornton, an agricultural scientist at the International Livestock Research Institute, headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, examined the potential effects of climate change on 22 of the world’s most important agricultural commodities, including wheat, soya beans and potatoes.’

‘By 2050, climate change could cause irrigated wheat yields in developing countries to drop by 13%, and irrigated rice could fall by 15%. In Africa, maize yields could drop by 10–20% over the same time frame.

‘For some crops, improvements to heat resistance through conventional and transgenic breeding, for example, will help farmers to adapt. But for others, more radical changes are needed. . . .’

Read the whole article by Natasha Gilbert in Nature: One-third of our greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture, doi:10.1038/nature.2012.11708, 31 Oct 2012.

Read the policy brief by Philip Thornton. Recalibrating food production in the developing world: Global warming will change more than just the climate. CCAFS Policy Brief no. 6. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2012.

Read more about this on ILRI’s News Blog:  As the cooking pot turns: Staple crop and animal foods are being ‘recalibrated’ for a warmer world, 1 Nov 2012.

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Food security, ILRI, LivestockFutures, PA, Report Tagged: CGIAR, Greenhouse gas emissions, Nature News, Philip Thornton, Sonja Vermeulen

Dairy farmers in Tanzania. Farmers in East Africa are embracing climate-resilient farming practices but food insecurity prevents many of them from doing more to cope with a changing climate (photo credit: ILRI/Nils Teufel).

Smallholder farmers across East Africa have started embracing climate-resilient farming approaches and technologies according to new research recently published by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). At the same time, high levels of food insecurity are preventing many of the farmers from making all the changes needed to cope with a changing climate.

The study—released one year after East Africa’s worst drought in 60 years hit its peak—is based on a survey of over 700 farming households in four East African countries carried out by CCAFS and is published in the May 2012 edition of the journal Food Security.

Researchers Wiebke Förch and Philip Thornton of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) are among the authors of the report.

According to the study, some of the climate-resilient approaches being used by smallholder farmers include changing the way they manage livestock by reducing the sizes of their herds. ‘Stall feeding and the practice of “cut and carry” animal feeding have also been taken up fairly widely in some places and changes in the types of animals being raised and in adopting new breeds are also happening,’ says the report.

Farmers have implemented several methods to improve productivity and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, which cause global warming: 34 per cent have reduced livestock herd sizes and 48 per cent are managing their resources better, for example by growing crops for animal feed. These changes can help farmers adjust to changing weather patterns; and better diets for ruminant livestock can also lower emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas, per unit of meat and milk produced.

One-third of agropastoral households in Ethiopia and one-fifth in Tanzania are managing pasturelands better—through actions such as planting better forage varieties and fencing off grazing areas. According to researchers, these changes will be key to feeding livestock in a changing climate, as well as lowering greenhouse gas emissions, but few in Kenya and Uganda have adopted such practices.

According to the study, food insecurity is limiting farmer adaptation to climate change; farming households in all five study sites were confronting this issue as they faced food deficits on average for two months a year in Nyando, Kenya, and for more than half the year in Borana, Ethiopia.

‘Households struggling to feed their families throughout the year are not in a good position to invest in new practices that include higher costs and risks,’ said Patti Kristjanson of CCAFS, who co-led the study, ‘yet not adapting is certainly contributing to food insecurity. Food insecurity means lower adaptive capacity to deal with all kinds of change.’

This survey of African smallholder farmers is part of an effort by CCAFS to better understand levels of food security among smallholder households, what actions and adaptation strategies farmers have already been pursuing, what information they are getting and how they are using it, and what services they have been receiving.

‘CCAFS is interested in identifying and evaluating the trade-offs farmers face as they attempt to deal with risks from increasing climate variability. While warmer temperatures can in fact increase yields for some crops—particularly in the tropics—the overall implications of climate change for food security for families and the region as a whole are an immense concern,’ said James Kinyangi, the ILRI-based CCAFS’ regional program leader for East Africa.

Read the complete press release on the CCAFS website: Landmark survey finds adaptation to climate change on smallholder farms taking root, 7 Sep 2012.

Read the full report: Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices? Evidence from East Africa, published in Food Security: Volume 4, Number 3 (2012), 381–397, DOI: 10.1007/s12571-012-0194-z

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, East Africa, Food security, Livelihoods, PA, Report Tagged: CCAFS, Ethiopia, James Kinyangi, Kenya, Patti Kristjanson, Phil Thornton, Wiebke Förch

This report on Greening livestock: Assessing the potential of payment for environmental services in livestock inclusive agricultural production systems in developing countries was released by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in July 2012.

Livestock serve as pathways out of poverty for poor smallholder farmers in the developing world. The production of livestock in mixed extensive and intensive crop–livestock and pastoral grazing systems worldwide generates both positive and negative impacts on the environment. This creates a challenge to promote livestock production systems that can generate economic benefits that foster social development while ensuring environmental sustainability.

In the developing world, there is increasing interest in payments for environmental services as an instrument for better managing the environment while helping to reduce poverty, particularly in rural areas.

To date, few payments for environmental services schemes target livestock keepers. This ILRI report, by Silvia Silvestri, Philip Osano, Jan de Leeuw, Mario Herrero, Polly Ericksen, Juliet Kariuki, Jemimah Njuki, Claire Bedelian and An Notenbaert, helps to fill this gap by assessing the merits of such schemes in various livestock-inclusive farming systems in the developing world.

Among the report’s key recommendations are the following.

• Develop robust measurement and verification tools for environmental services produced by the livestock sector in livestock-inclusive agricultural production systems.

• Develop policies to promote implementation of schemes offering payments for environmental services in livestock-inclusive agricultural production systems to enable livestock farmers to diversify their income and to improve their economic situation.

• Provide support to livestock farmers to access the emerging environmental service markets.

• Implement capacity building activities (training, information provision to mention but a few) to increase the awareness of payments for environmental services schemes among smallholder households and to enable collective action processes needed for livestock farmers to access and participate in environmental service markets.

• Establish pilot climate change mitigation PES projects to demonstrate their benefits to livestock keepers and to explore the potential to link PES to climate change adaptation funds.

This report was made possible through financial support from the CGIAR, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the Federal Republic of Germany and its GIZ/BEAF International Agricultural Research Grants Programme within the Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

Download the paper

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Environment, ILRI, Livestock, Livestock Systems, PLE, Report Tagged: BEAF, BMZ, CGIAR, GIZ, PES, Silvia Silvestri

Watch this elegant 6-minute film: How to fed the world by 2050: Actions in a changing climate.

Film summary: To achieve food security in a changing climate, the global community must operate within three limits: the quantity of food that can be produced under a given climate; the quantity needed by a growing and changing population; and the effect of food production on the climate. At present the planet operates outside that safe space, as witnessed by the enormous number of people who are undernourished. If current trends in population growth, diets, crop yields and climate change continue, the world will still be outside this ‘safe operating space’ in 2050. Humanity must urgently work to enlarge the safe space and also move the planet into the safe space (film credit: Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, an initiative of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security, in collaboration with University of Minnesota Global Landscapes Initiative).

The Huffington Post has run a series of blogs by leading non-governmental organizations to call attention to a range of issues that should be raised at the G8 summit at Camp David, which just took place in rural Maryland, 18–19 May 2012. One of these opinion pieces is by Bruce Campbell, who leads the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, of which the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) is a part.

In his opinion piece, Campbell warns that ‘Our window of opportunity to avert a humanitarian, environmental and climate crisis is rapidly closing. Currently, the global food system contributes 19–29 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions and is seen as one of the main drivers of global climate change. There are currently 1 billion people hungry and in only 15 years’ time, there will be 1 billion more mouths to feed. Ironically, there are also 1.5 billion overweight people in the world. Consumer food waste in the developed world can be considerable (30 percent in the UK, for instance) while in the developing world, an equal percentage (or more) can be lost during and after harvests due to poor pest control, inadequate storage facilities as well as lack of access to markets for selling crops.

These simple facts tell us that not only that we must redouble our efforts to increase our overall food production, but that we must do this with a smaller impact on the climate while promoting sustainable diets and uncovering new methods for efficient distribution and waste prevention.

‘Fixing our food system is indeed a colossal task, but there are huge opportunities for transformation, should global leaders take heed. Agriculture accounts for almost 40 percent of employment around the world, as well as 70 percent of water use, and covers more land that any other human enterprise. In addition, 95 percent of the world’s farmers live in the developing world and produce the majority of the world’s food. They are also among the most vulnerable to climate change shocks such as floods or drought.

As such a vital part of the economy and of society, how can agriculture not be a top priority on the global political agenda? . . .’

Read the whole opinion piece by Bruce Campbell in the Huffington Post: Food security: A ripe opportunity for the G8, 18 May 2012.

About CCAFS: The CGIAR Research Program, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), is a strategic partnership of the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP). The Program’s lead center is the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). The program is funded by bilateral and multilateral donor agencies, and is staffed by people based at leading research institutions worldwide.

About Bruce Campbell: Director of CCAFS since 2009 and chair of Agriculture and Rural Development Day, a gathering on 18 June 2012 of the world’s leading agricultural scientists and food system thinkers at the Rio+20 sustainable development summit, Bruce Campbell is an ecologist who champions new approaches to applied research in managing natural resources. Campbell spent two decades working on social-ecological systems in southern Africa, covering small to large forestry, livestock, dryland and irrigated cropping production systems. For ten years, he directed a team of 50 scientists in a forests and livelihoods program at the Centre for International Forestry Research, based in Indonesia, and he spent time in northern Australia, working on natural resource management by Aboriginal communities.

Filed under: Climate Change, CRP7, Environment, Food security, ILRI, LivestockFutures, NRM, Opinion piece, PA Tagged: Bruce Campbell, CCAFS, CGIAR, Commission on Sustainable Agriculture ad Climate Change, G8, Huffington Post

Visual capture of livestock talk by Andy Jarvis (CIAT and CCAFS), ‘The Elephant in the Room—Or Is It a Cow?’—to the Inter-Agency Donor Group (IADG) for livestock at the Work Bank in Washington DC, in Apr 2012 (figure credit: CIAT).

Andy Jarvis, a senior scientist and biodiversity expert at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (known by its Spanish acronym, CIAT), based in Cali, Colombia, where he leads a ‘Decision and Policy Analysis Program’, last week took on what many might view as an awkward role—that of livestock spokesperson—at the 13th Annual Meeting of the Inter-Agency Donor Group (IADG) at the World Bank in Washington, D.C.

If most environmentally minded scientists would have viewed this job as pulling the short straw, Jarvis, who has been called a ‘promiscuous agricultural geographer’—seems to have relished his livestock presentation as a golden opportunity. With his professional interests including developing-country agriculture with a focus on Latin America, spatial analysis of agrobiodiversity (aka wild relatives of our food crops, with a rare wild pepper a target of his special interest), climate change, payment schemes for poor communities for their provision of water and other ecosystem services, global environmental modelling and dataset development, geographical information systems (Jarvis heads CIAT’s GIS laboratory), Jarvis is also a self-confessed communicator to just about everyone and innovator of just about anything.

Noting the difficulty in pinning down, fairly and accurately, levels of emissions of greenhouse gases produced by the livestock sector, Jarvis says, ‘It’s no wonder livestock often gets left out of the mitigation discussion altogether.’

But the difficulties associated with getting the numbers correct are no excuse for inaction, Jarvis told the livestock donor group.

Despite our uncertainties, explained Jarvis, there’s no getting around the fact that livestock have a huge ecological ‘hoofprint’. That hoofprint can only get bigger as global demand for animal products grows, and the livestock sector has to get serious about appropriate policy and technology.

‘Reliable estimates of the percentage of GHG emissions attributable to livestock range from 10–18%, a considerable difference. But even the most conservative figures should be nothing short of startling, especially when you consider that 30–45% of the earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture, as well as 80% of all agricultural land. “That’s arguably the largest ecological footprint on the planet, certainly in terms of area,” said Jarvis. In fact, a full 80% of all agricultural emissions come from none other than the livestock sector, and it would be foolish to ignore such statistics in the name of absolute certainty.

‘Meanwhile, trends of animal product consumption in the developing world make the subject of livestock sector sustainability even more urgent. Between 1961 and 2005 milk consumption in developing countries doubled, meat consumption tripled, and egg consumption increased by a factor of five. While this increase signals an encouraging blow against malnutrition, it also carries with it the burden of environmental degradation. Furthermore, simply eliminating animal products from the menu with the aim of decreasing emissions could be disastrous for poor farmers, the majority of whom depend on livestock as an important—and sometimes their only—source of income.

‘Jarvis challenged those present at April’s meeting to look at the livestock “hoofprint” as an opportunity as much as a call to immediate action. “Developing countries are where it’s at! They have the biggest potential for mitigation and major system transformations. There are systems which are far more efficient than others, and developing nations have the ability to put the rest of the world to shame.” . . .’

Read the whole article by Caitlin Peterson on CIAT’s DAPA Blog: The elephant in the room—or is it a cow?, 26 Apr 2012, where you’ll also find a provocative and information-dense slide presentation Jarvis made to the donor group—’Livestock, climate change and resource use: Present and future’. The slide presentation (also available online here) was put together by Jarvis jointly with CIAT’s Peterson and Michael Peters and their colleagues from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Phil Thornton, Polly Ericksen and Mario Herrero. Jarvis, Peters and Thornton also lead research in the multi-institutional CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Here is how the CIAT-ILRI authors sum up their messages to the donors of livestock research for development:

The Hoofprint Means There’s Plenty To Do

• Livestock is a major contributor to climate change and arguably has the largest ecological footprint on the planet (certainly in terms of area).
• The trend is that things can only get worse—with a rising demand for livestock products in developing countries and emerging economies meaning that the livestock sector is likely to make up a larger and larger share of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Developing countries are where it’s at! They have the biggest potential for mitigation of livestock-generated greenhouse gas emissions and present plenty of opportunities for major system transformations.
• There are still big knowledge gaps that research can and should fill, starting with better estimates of GHG emissions produced by the livestock sector.
• Good policies accompanied by the right technologies could transform the hoofprint—and put developed nations to shame.

Read more about the livestock ‘goods’ and bads’ controversies here: ILRI Pinterest board on livestock ‘goods’ and ‘bads’.

Filed under: CRP7, Environment, NRM, PA, Presentation, Pro-Poor Livestock Tagged: Andy Jarvis, CGIAR, IADG, Mario Herrero, Philip Thornton, Pinterest, Polly Ericksen

Indonesian village devastated by flooding; climate change will bring about more severe floods and droughts (photo on Flickr by International Rivers).

‘As Asia’s monsoon season begins, leading climate specialists and agricultural scientists warn that rapid climate change and its potential to intensify droughts and floods could end Southeast Asia’s global dominance in rice production and pose a significant threat to millions of people across the region.

“Climate change endangers crop and livestock yields and the health of fisheries and forests at the same time that surging populations worldwide are placing new demands on food production,” said Bruce Campbell of the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). “These clashing trends challenge us to transform our agriculture systems so they can sustainably deliver the food required to meet our nutritional needs and support economic development, despite rapidly shifting growing conditions.”

‘Southeast Asia has experienced dramatic meteorological swings, as last year’s record flooding was preceded by a record drought in 2010. These and many other extreme weather events around the world have hammered global food prices, stretching their impact beyond immediate personal and ecological tragedies.

‘In Thailand, a drought during the 2010 growing season caused US$450 million in crop damages. Massive flooding in 2011 caused $40 billion in damages that rippled through all sectors of Thailand’s economy.

‘”In the fields, there is no debate whether climate change is happening or not,” said Raj Paroda of the Asia-Pacific Association of Agricultural Research Institutions (APAARI). “Now, we must think about what the research community can provide governments to guide effective action. Given the region’s current state of food insecurity, climate-smart agriculture has to become the central part of Asia’s adaptation strategy.”

‘South and Southeast Asia are home to more than one-third of the world’s population and half of the world’s poor and malnourished. Absent new approaches to food production, climate change in this region is expected to reduce agriculture productivity by as much as 50 per cent in the next three decades. And with agriculture serving as the backbone of most economies in the region, such plunging yields would shake countries to the core. . . .

‘Most Asian countries became food self-sufficient in the 1970s and 1980s as a result of investments made during the “Green Revolution” that ushered in new crop varieties, wider irrigation and better water management. Today, the mega-deltas of Asia’s major rivers are the rice bowls for the world and are crucial to meeting global grain demand.

‘But now, the growing variability between seasons has increased pressures on water supplies, while at the same time rising sea levels are tainting freshwater supplies with high levels of salinity. This troublesome combination is putting Asia’s global supremacy in rice production at risk. In Southeast Asia, for example, some of the major river basins—including the Chao Phraya in Thailand and the Red in Vietnam—are considered “closed” because all of the water flow has been claimed.

‘In South Asia, the Ganges and Indus river basins underpin the food security of well over a billion people. Yet danger signs are looming: 88 per cent of Indians live in river basins with some form of water scarcity or food deficit. In Southeast Asia, despite the wider use of irrigation, approximately 75 per cent of crops are still rain-fed and remain especially vulnerable to the vagaries of the climate. . . .

Crop production is not the only aspect of agriculture that needs to adapt. Livestock production systems, especially in developing countries, are changing rapidly in response to population growth, urbanisation and the growing demand for meat and milk. But current livestock production methods, for example, average about 900 litres of water just to create one litre of milk, according to Purvi Mehta-Bhatt, head of the International Livestock Research Institute’s (ILRI’s) Asia region.

“It is important to consider livestock’s impact on climate change,” Mehta-Bhatt said, “But you also need to consider climate change’s impact on livestock, such as heat stress and the migration of disease.”

‘. . . The authors are members of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), a strategic partnership of the CGIAR and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).’

Read the whole article at The Nation (Thailand): Rapid climate change now threatens Asia’s rice bowl, 21 Apr 2012.

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Directorate, ILRI, India, PA, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Thailand, Vietnam Tagged: APAARI, Purvi Mehta-Bhatt, The Nation (Thailand)

As part of a development education/awareness programme in Europe, Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Europa and its partners recently carried out a study on the importance of Small Scale Livestock Farming in the context of climate variability.

Part of a ‘campaign’ to sensitize and mobilize people in favour of small scale livestock farming, the study “shows that small scale livestock farming has a potential to cope with and adapt to climatic variability, especially in some determined regions in the world. Moreover, due to its specific functions, small scale livestock farming can also be considered as an important way to mitigate carbon emissions from livestock sector.”

The report contextualizes the role that small-scale livestock farming (SSLF) plays in the climate change (CC) debate and its potential contribution to food security. It addresses three principal questions:

1. how small-scale livestock farming systems are sustainable and could contribute to CC mitigation;
2. how they are efficient at producing animal source foods for the growing populations and contribute to future food security challenges;
3. how SSLF communities have traditionally adapted to climate variability and whether these strategies can be valid for CC adaptation.

To address these questions, the authors propose three main categories of livestock farming:

• small-scale livestock farming (SSLF), which includes pastoralism, small ranching, backyard pig and poultry production, and small mixed farming (both irrigated and rain-fed);
• medium-scale livestock farming (MSLF), with the highest variability of farming types, including large ranching and large mixed farming (both irrigated and rain-fed);
• and large-scale livestock farming (LSLF), defined fundamentally by landless industrial production.

The report critically assesses the existing literature in terms of livestock production and mitigation alternatives and, drawing on cases in Turkana (Kenya), Alaotra Lake (Madagascar), Khar-o-Touran (Iran) and Huancavelica (Peru), it presents adaptation measures undertaken by small scale livestock farming communities.

Download the executive summary of the report

View a photographic exhibition as part of the project

Filed under: Climate Change, CRP7, Farming Systems, Livestock, Livestock Systems, Report Tagged: VSF

A youth sets out with his weeding tool for his family’s sorghum plot in Katanga Village, near Fakara, in Niger (photo credit: ILRI/Stevie Mann).

Philip Thornton, a scientist at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), who leads a research theme of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) on Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning, provides the following news.

‘To make the necessary decisions and investments for climate adaptation in agriculture, we need information about future weather conditions. The CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security has been improving the MarkSimGCM stochastic weather generator tool, released last year. MarkSim GCM lets the user generate plausible weather data for future climates . . . .  The tool is embedded in Google Earth and can also be used to generate daily data that are characteristic of current conditions, based on the WorldClim dataset, an interpolated surface of weather station data from around the world mostly covering the years 1960-1990.’The new tool, called Marksim_Standalone, is a development of the new MarkSimGCM web application. It is designed for computer users who need to process a lot of data without the need for a user interface. . . .

‘MarkSimGCM and MarkSim_StandAlone were developed by Waen Associates with CCAFS support, in cooperation with CIAT, ILRI, IFPRI, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, HarvestChoice, and the University of Oxford.’

Read the whole article, written by Philip Thornton, and see its links to the tools, on the CCAFS blog: New tool generates future weather data for crop and climate planning, 5 Apr 2012.

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, ILRI, LivestockFutures, PA Tagged: CIAT, HarvestChoice, IFPRI, MarkSim GCM, Marksim Standalone, Philip Thornton, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, University of Oxford, WAEN Associates

Maize plants in Kenya (photo on Flickr by Vanessa Meadu).

‘There has been a lot of talk, research, and policy documents on climate change and what this portends for the country’s food and even national security.

‘However, not much has been done on the ground to mitigate the effects of climate variability despite the knowledge.

‘Prof Margaret Kamar, the Minister for Higher Education Science and Technology, has warned of a catastrophe unless practical steps are taken to increase forest cover and protect the environment.

Almost three years ago, the International Livestock Research Institute warned that Kenyan’s staple food—maize—would continue to perform poorly in parts of Eastern Province because the crop cannot tolerate high temperatures.

‘This year, the region is reporting another maize crop failure, despite efforts to support farmers with seeds and other inputs. . . .’

Read the whole editorial at the Daily Nation (Kenya): Heed climate warnings, 12 March 2012.

Read related articles on this ILRI Clippings Blog:

‘Climate models need to shift focus from global to regional’, 14 Mar 2012

‘Worldwatch Institute project highlights CGIAR report on farm regions on collision course with climate change’, 6 Mar 2012

‘Climatic conditions linked to Horn’s 2011 drought persist–could spell another food crisis’, 13 Feb 2012

Filed under: Climate Change, CRP7, Drought, Drylands, East Africa, Food security, ILRI, Kenya, LivestockFutures, Opinion piece, PA Tagged: Daily Nation, Eastern Province, Maize

(Picture on Flickr by Zoriah.)

A new report focusing on eastern and western Africa and the South Asian Indo-Gangetic Plains, which span parts of Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, on the ability of global climate models to predict regional climate events such as monsoon rains and temperatures—and found mixed results.

‘The models have a reasonable capability in terms of reproducing [trends in the] East African climate,’ said Richard Washington, professor of climate science at the University of Oxford.

‘But in West Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, the models predicted more monsoon rains, of different duration, to those that were actually observed.

‘Similar difficulties were encountered with India’s monsoons, the authors said. . . .

‘The authors said global models often failed to take account of complex regional climatic factors—making them less useful for policymakers.

‘For example, Asia’s monsoons are affected by many region-specific factors, such as El Niño events, atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean, and Asia’s so-called ‘brown cloud’ air pollution. . . .

‘The authors suggested greater use of ‘ensemble’ models which combine results from several models to generate averages; and also the use of global models in conjunction with regional ones, to enable regional information to be factored in alongside larger-scale processes. . . .’

‘Philip Thornton, a senior scientist at the International Livestock Research Institute in Kenya and a modelling tools leader at CCAFS told SciDev.Net:

The more we understand [uncertainty in models], the better we can deal with it.’

Read the whole article at SciDev.Net: Global climate models ‘need regional sensitivity, 13 Mar 2012.

Read more about the report, developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), on the ILRI News Blog: New reports explore reliability of climate models at predicting impacts on agriculture, 21 Feb 2012.

Filed under: Bangladesh, Climate Change, CRP7, Geodata, ILRI, India, LivestockFutures, PA, Pakistan, Report Tagged: CCAFS, Philip Thornton, SciDevNet, University of Cape Town, University of Oxford

Mali women collect firewood for cooking on the dry bed of the Niger River (photo on Flickr by United Nations).

The Worldwatch Institute’s ‘Nourishing the Planet’ project this week highlights a report illustrating food-insecure regions where climate change is likely to exacerbate hunger and malnutrition. The report was published in 2011 by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Climate Change (CCAFS).

‘A recent report by The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), offers new insight into the threat that climate change poses to the livelihood of millions of farmers worldwide. The report, Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics, maps areas at risk of crossing “climate thresholds—temperatures too hot for maize or beans,” by 2050. These threshold models were compared against food insecure countries, defined as places where over 40 percent of children under the age of five experienced stunted growth as a result of malnutrition.

 

When these two factors overlap, the model “reveals places around the world where the arrival of stressful growing conditions could be especially disastrous,” says Polly Ericksen, a senior scientist at the CGIAR’s International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).

CGIAR researcher Patti Kristjanson says that the report signals that farmers will have to develop new ways to adjust to climate change.

“Farmers already adapt to variable weather patterns by changing their planting schedules or moving animals to different grazing areas” she explains. But “what this study suggests is that the speed of climate shifts and the magnitude of the changes required to adapt could be much greater”, [CCFS's Patti Kristjanson] concludes.

This means that farmers need to consider growing different crops. Due to its temperature sensitivity, wheat might be replaced with indigenous crops, like sorghum or cassava, which are better adapted to changing climate conditions. . . .

The report’s co-author, Philip Thornton, stresses that while innovations can help countries develop agricultural practices that address challenges presented by climate change, time is limited. “Major adaptation efforts are needed now if we are to avoid serious food security and livelihood problems later,” [ILRI/CCAFS' Philip Thornton] explained.‘

Read the whole article at Nourishing the Planet: Climate change exacerbates scarcity in already food insecure regions, 3 Mar 2012.

Read more about the report and its extensive maps:
ILRI-CCAFS news release: Study reveals future ‘hotspots’ of risk for hundreds of millions whose food problems are on a collision course with climate change, 3 Jun 2011

ILRI blog post: Update: Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity, 30 Jul 2012.

Read the report itself: Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics, by Polly Ericksen, Philip Thornton, An Notenbaert, Laura Cramer, Peter Jones and Mario Herrero, ILRI, 2011.

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Food security, Geodata, ILRI, PA, PLE, Report, Vulnerability Tagged: 2011 Climate Hotspots Report news release (ILRI-CCAFS Nbi), CGIAR, Nourishing the Planet, Patti Kristjanson, Philip Thornton, Polly Ericksen, Worldwatch Institute

Ox Cart Crossing a Flooded Plain, painting by Ivan Alvazovsky, 1897 (source: Wikipaintings).

On 21 Feb 2012, from 14:30–15:30 (Central European Time), a video seminar will explore how current climate models for agricultural impacts perform in Africa and South Asia. The research in this study was coordinated by Phil Thornton, an agricultural systems analyst with the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and a theme leader in the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.

Tara Garnett, a collaborator in ILRI research who leads the Food Climate Research Network (FCRN) in the UK, reports the following in her 9 Feb 2012 newsletter.

‘Soon-to-be-released studies, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), assess the performance of climate models in representing the current and future climate of East Africa, West Africa and South Asia, with a particular emphasis on the models’ ability to assess impacts of climate change on the major crops currently grown in each region.

‘Profesor Richard Washington (University of Oxford) and Professor Mark New (University of Cape Town) will discuss recent trends, current projections, crop-climate suitability, and prospects for improved climate model information over the next 10 years, and answer questions from viewers.’

For more information, visit CCAFS videostream webpage to view the live webcast and to sign up for upcoming science seminars.

Filed under: Africa, Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Event, Film and video, ILRI, Interview, LivestockFutures, PA, PLE, South Asia Tagged: FCRN, Phil Thornton, Tara Garnett, University of Cape Town, University of Oxford

Livestock development in poor countries will face increasingly stiff regulations for operating in a carbon-constrained economy.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimated in 2006 that global livestock contributes up to 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from land use change (carbon dioxide), enteric fermentation from ruminants (methane) and manure management (nitrous oxide).

To help the world’s 600 million livestock keepers not only increase their livestock production but do so efficiently and sustainability will require continuing advances in the three traditional pillars of livestock development: breeding, feeding and health.

And much more.

A 4-degree warmer world could plausibly be reached by 2070 or even 2060. This will mean average temperature rises of a massive 15ºC in the Arctic, and 3–8ºC in the world’s most populated areas.

Agriculture is highly sensitive even to a 2-degree scenario; a 4-degree world is beyond our knowledge and experience.

Livestock and agricultural researchers foresee profound effects. Ensembles of models suggest for Africa average yield drops of 19% for maize and 47% for beans, and much more frequent crop failures. And a massive 1.2 million sq km may be forced to flip from typical mixed farms, raising both crops and livestock, into pure rangeland.

Disaster looms for parts of Africa and India if chronic food insecurity converges with crop-wilting weather. Latin America is also vulnerable.

A 4-degree world calls for not just increasing the resilience of food production systems, but for creating completely new ways of farming and consuming.

But while many of us may find factory farming objectionable, we must not conflate industrial grain-fed livestock systems of rich producers with the family farming and herding practices of hundreds of millions of poor producers, most of whom still maintain their animals not on grain but on pasture grass and crop wastes.

For people living in absolute poverty and chronic hunger, the solution is not to rid the world of livestock, but rather to find ways to farm animals more efficiently and profitably, as well as sustainability.

Discover more about this topic:

• News, updates, stories
• Photos
• Presentations
• Publications
• CGIAR Research Program on climate change, agriculture and food security
• More on the ILRI web site

Filed under: Agriculture, Climate Change, CRP7, Environment Tagged: Climate Change

For the November 2011 ‘liveSTOCK Exchange’ event at ILRI, Augustine Ayantunde, Shirley Tarawali and Iain Wright prepared an issue brief on livestock challenges and opportunities in rangelands …

Perceptions about arid and semi-arid pastoral regions are rapidly changing. They are no longer seen as livestock enterprises but as multiple use systems with important consequences for the global environment and for more diversified livelihood strategies.

They are crucial for the production of ecosystems goods and services, for tourism and for mitigating climate change. They have many functions and some alternative development options.

Some of these options, while important for households and communities are also of global and regional interest and might turn into economically viable livelihood strategies if the right systems of incentives and policies are put in place. For poor households this will mean alternatives beyond traditional livestock production such as the payments for ecosystems good and services like water, carbon sequestration and others, tourism, biofuel production and the development of niche markets.

Research agendas need to take into account the trade-offs and synergies arising from these multiple uses so that the poor are able to reap the multiple benefits provided by these ecosystems

Download Issue Brief 4.

On 9 and 10 November 2011, the ILRI Board of Trustees hosted a 2-day ‘liveSTOCK Exchange’ to discuss and reflect on livestock research for development. The event synthesized sector and ILRI learning and helped frame future livestock research for development directions.

The liveSTOCK Exchange also marked the leadership and contributions of Dr. Carlos Seré as ILRI Director General. See all posts in this series / Sign up for email alerts

Filed under: Animal Production, CRP7, Environment, Ethiopia, ILRI, Livestock, Livestock Systems, Pastoralism, PLE, Report, Research, Vulnerability Tagged: livestockX